August 2026 · Origin-market decision brief
Japan arrivals fell 9.6%.
That is not the whole market.
A small inbound operator should compare the headline with its own bookings by source market before changing a campaign.
Read the split
One headline, two opposing movements
JNTO estimates 3,098,900 visitor arrivals in August 2026, versus a definitive 3,428,406 in August 2025. China accounts for a fall of 600,747 arrivals. Subtract China from each year and the remaining markets rose by 271,241 arrivals.
South Korea reached 850,500 arrivals, up 28.7%; Taiwan reached 666,000, up 7.3%. These are broad origin-market signals, not evidence that any particular tour will sell.
| Origin | Aug 2025 | Aug 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All origins | 3,428,406 | 3,098,900 | −9.6% |
| China | 1,018,747 | 418,000 | −59.0% |
| Other origins* | 2,409,659 | 2,680,900 | +11.3% |
* “Other origins” is our subtraction from JNTO’s grand total, not a separate JNTO category. Percentages are rounded. Data: JAPAN NATIONAL TOURISM ORGANIZATION.
The operator test
A 30-minute check before moving budget
Compare your own bookings
Put completed August 2025 and 2026 bookings beside the JNTO origin figures. Check the markets you actually serve.
Use contribution margin
Look beyond leads and gross bookings. Include cancellations, available inventory, acquisition cost, and partner capacity.
Make one reversible change
Choose a market-specific creative or budget test. Name the booking measure that would make you reverse it.
A blank working sheet with the three JNTO market rows. It is a local file download; no form or email is required.
Interpret with care
What this table cannot tell you
2026 figures are preliminary JNTO estimates; 2025 figures are definitive. JNTO’s visitor-arrival definition includes some expatriates, international students, cruise visitors, and transit-related entrants. Arrival counts do not show hotel nights, trip spend, local destination, available seats, or demand for your product.
No spend shift is recommended from this table alone. Compare the signal with your own completed bookings, margin, and capacity.
Why this is a free sample
JNTO publishes the table and a travel trade newsletter for free. The value being tested here is the origin-market interpretation and operator worksheet. A paid research product would need repeated, buyer-specific decisions that the free source cannot already answer.